Ramapo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

914
FXUS61 KOKX 050228
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1028 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control into the weekend, then
slowly weaken next Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Heights will continue to gradually build along the eastern
seaboard through mid week, while surface high pressure
strengthens across eastern Canada. Hazy conditions due to smoke
from wildfires across western Canada will continue, however, not
expecting any significant reduction to surface visibility.

Lows tonight will be close to normal in the 60s to around 70.
The Long Island Pine Barrens region has radiated well the last
couple of nights and this has been poorly resolved by the NBM.
Blended with GFS/NAM MOS which have done better. Some high
clouds filtering in from the SW should have minimal impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With upper level ridging along the eastern seaboard and a weak
trough across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, expect some
increase in high clouds through the period. NBM increases clouds
so much so that skies are forecast to go mostly cloudy Tuesday
night into Wednesday. 12Z GFS shows high RH values in model time
height cross sections across the area. This will likely limit
the extent of radiational cooling at night and heating during
the daytime. Any showers should remain north across the higher
elevations of New England. In addition, with high pressure
strengthening to the north across eastern Canada during this
time, east-northeast winds Tuesday night into Wednesday will
allow cooler maritime air to filter across the area.

HiRes models also continue to support some smoke, but mainly
confined aloft. This should keep the area hazy into Tuesday.
Improvements are expected by mid week, especially near the
surface due to an easterly flow.

High temps on Tuesday will be similar to what we saw on Monday,
in the mid to upper 80s away from the immediate coastline.
This is near normal. Lows will in general be a touch warmer, in
the 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A decent stretch of sensible weather is in store as global models
advertise persistent sfc high pressure and a building upper ridge
through much of the period.

By Monday, the ridge aloft should start to break down as an upper
trough approaches from the west. Temps on Mon could reach the upper
80s/lower 90s, with dewpoints rising to the upper 60s/lower 70s,
yielding heat index values in the lower 90s. The combo of tropical
moisture, lift from the approaching upper trough, and some sfc-based
instability could lead to some afternoon showers and perhaps a tstm
mainly west of NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region through the TAF period.

VFR. While smoke aloft is likely for Tuesday, surface
visibilities are expected to remain VFR.

Winds light and variable to calm overnight become a light SE
flow late morning Tuesday and continues into the afternoon.
Sea breezes are possible late day.


 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

Smoke aloft remains in the area through Tuesday with slant
range visibility restrictions likely.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night - Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through at least Wednesday
morning. An easterly swell generated from low pressure out in
the western Atlantic (Tropical Storm Dexter) will gradually
build through the period with seas building to around 4 ft on
Wednesday. Long period easterly swell will likely keep seas on
the ocean around 4 ft into Friday. Combined seas may approach 5
ft on the outermost ocean waters daytime Thu. The swell should
diminish to 3 ft from late Fri night into Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have forecast a moderate rip current risk for the Suffolk
beaches for Tue as swells begin to increase while winds remain
light, less than 10 kt. As swells build to 3-4 ft on Wed and E
flow increases to 10-15, expect a moderate rip current risk at
all the beaches, with longshore currents as well.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG