Ramapo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

396
FXUS61 KOKX 072111
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
511 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The thunderstorms threat for the area has passed. Additional
isolated showers can not be ruled out into the evening, mainly
for eastern CT.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry conditions through Wednesday with cooler
temperatures Monday before gradually warming Tuesday into
Wednesday.

2) Heat and humidity may build late week, with potential of
unsettled weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mid level shortwave trough will swing across New England through
this evening. The passage of the upper trough may also be
enough to develop isolated showers this evening, mainly across
portions of SE CT and potentially the forks of Long Island this
evening. Most places should remain dry this evening.

High pressure builds down from the north tonight into Monday and
will then remain overhead on Tuesday. Dry and cooler conditions
are expected on Monday. Highs will largely be in the mid to
upper 70s although a few spots in NE NJ, NYC metro and Lower
Hudson valley could reach the low 80s. Some slight moderation is
likely on Tuesday with temperatures above normal in the lower
to middle 80s. Developing sea breezes will keep the immediate
coast a bit cooler.

High pressure shifts to the western Atlantic on Wednesday. The
ridge aloft looks to weaken slightly with a shortwave passing
across the northeast late in the day. Temperatures should be
warmer compared to the start of the week with highs in the mid
to upper 80s, warmest across NE NJ and the interior. Sea breezes
will continue to keep the immediate coast a bit cooler. A few
showers, possibly a thunderstorm, cannot be ruled out late in
the day and evening with the passing shortwave.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Heat and increasing humidity are possible Thursday and Friday
as an upper level ridge will slide across the eastern seaboard.
Guidance is hinting at a shortwave passing across the northeast
on Friday/Friday night. The timing of this system is still in
question given it is still several days out. The approach of the
shortwave may help advect some higher humidities into the area,
especially to end the week. Temperatures on Thursday should
rise well into the 80s with the usual warmer spots rising into
the lower 90s. There is a chance for some mid 90s in the warmest
spots of urban NE NJ. Similar conditions are possible on
Friday. Closer to the coast and across SE CT, temperatures will
likely only be in the mid to potentially upper 80s before sea
breezes level temps off or lower them in the latter part of the
day.

The increase in humidity could allow apparent temperatures to
approach heat advisory criteria in parts of NE NJ, NYC metro, and
Lower Hudson Valley Thursday and Friday, with heat indices near 95-
100F away from the coast both Thursday and Friday.

Convective chances exist Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening,
but hinge on the timing shortwaves, which are difficult to resolve
this far out. It is also too early for any confidence in severe
thunderstorm potential.

Temperatures will likely remain hot for the upcoming weekend, but
a decrease in humidity is possible behind the passing
shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move through this afternoon. High pressure
will then build to the north through Mon morning, then over the
area Mon afternoon.

Sct tstms around the NYC metros with the cold front should be
through all except KJFK, which may still have impact before 19Z.
After that, NW flow 15G20-25kt should veer more to the NNW and
diminish slightly this evening to 10-15G20kt, then become NNE 10 kt
or less overnight. As the high builds over the area or just S Mon
afternoon, winds will shift SE-S around or just over 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday through Tuesday night: VFR.

Wednesday: Chance of a late day tstm from the NYC metros north/west,
then throughout at night. SW winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: Chance of showers early in the morning, then chance of
afternoon/evening showers/tstms.

Friday: Chance of afternoon/evening showers/tstms from the NYC
metros north/west.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NW flow behind a cold front late this afternoon and evening
could bring gusts around 20 kt. There is also a chance for a
gust close to 25 kt away from the shore on the ocean east of
Moriches Inlet tonight. Otherwise, high pressure building in
will lead to conditions below SCA levels through Tuesday. The
next chance for SCA conditions will be Wednesday on the ocean
as S-SW flow increases ahead of a weak frontal system. Conditions
should then remain below SCA levels for the end of the week.

Rip Currents...

There`s a moderate rip current risk at all local ocean beaches
today with a 10 to 15 kt flow parallel to the shoreline and a
4-ft 7-sec S swell.

By Monday, the rip current risk is low with the lingering S
swell falling to 2 ft at 6s and lightening winds.

A S/SW flow picks up Tuesday which may lead to a moderate risk
during the afternoon. For now, stuck with a low risk, but there
is potential for this to be upgraded to a moderate. Otherwise,
there is just a lingering 2 ft swell at 7-8s out of the SE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS/JT
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...DS/JT